Players with an eye toward catching lightning (or a lightning fast horse) in a bottle still have time to place a future book wager on the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, May 7. However, while
The Greek Sportsbook has prices posted on the Louisville race, before taking the plunge, it might be wise to consider the following factors:
RISK: Unlike baseball, football or basketball futures, there's no guarantee that your team, or in this case, your horse, even will enter the competition. Just one look at a thoroughbred - half a ton of hard-to-restrain muscle sitting on legs no larger than your forearm - gives you an understanding of why an animal, pounding the ground at nearly 40 miles per hour on those spindly underpinnings, is so difficult to keep from injuring himself. That helps to explain why so many well-bred, well-intended thoroughbreds never even make it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
And even if fate smiles upon you and you have the best horse, there's no assurance that you'll get the cash. Take Native Dancer, the stylish gray colt that helped consummate the marriage between horse racing and television back in the 1950s. A bountiful 10/1 price in what was then known as the Winter Book, Native Dancer was sent off at odds of 3/5 in the 1953 Kentucky Derby. The colt was roughed up on the first turn by a horse named Money Broker, lost many lengths, then failed to catch 24/1 longshot Dark Star at the finish, losing by a head. In a magnificent 22-race career, the Kentucky Derby was the only race Native Dancer ever lost.
Four years later, Gallant Man, a robust 25/1 Winter Book proposition, seemingly had the Derby wrapped up when jockey Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line and stood up in the stirrups, allowing 8/1 Iron Liege to score a nose upset.
REWARD: Sure it's tough to win the Derby but the rewards can be so great that the risk is worth the reward. Where else but in the Kentucky Derby future book can you get 100/1 on a horse that goes off at 3/1 in the actual race? That's exactly what happened to the savvy future book players who tabbed Winning Colors to win the 1988 running of the race. Even this late in the game, the
The Greek Sportsbook future book list still boasts dozens of 3-year-olds with odds in excess of 20/1. One of them could be the Kentucky Derby winner.
That being said, what are the fundamental factors in choosing a Kentucky Derby contender?
SPEED: Obviously, you need a horse that's fast enough to win. The best way to determine a horse's speed is with reliable Speed Figures. The least expensive way to access the numbers is through Daily Racing Form and the Beyer Speed Figures. The key is not to pick the fastest horse now but the horse you believe will be fastest on Derby day. Many professional players look for a gradual progression in Speed Figures as a sign that a horse is improving and reaching his potential.
STYLE: Front-runners, stalkers and closers have won the Derby and all these styles have their merits. But it's proven quite difficult to win the mile-and-a-quarter Derby on the lead and a slow pace always can victimize horses that come from behind. By far, it's stalkers - horses that are not on the lead but not too far behind, either - that have the best running style to win the Derby.
EXPERIENCE: Most astute bettors prefer a Derby contender to have a "foundation," or body of work as a 2-year-old. The belief is that the demanding distance of the Derby mandates that a horse have adequate preparation, including a number of races early in his life to build stamina.
Gamblers also like their Derby prospect to have at least one race at a distance over a mile - preferably a mile and one-eighth - around two turns. Nine furlong races that have served as useful preps for Derby contenders include the Florida Derby at Gulfstream; Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland; the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct; the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park; and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.
PEDIGREE: Whether you're a bettor or a horseman, the chief challenge is in finding a prospect that can survive the grueling mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby. With a growing emphasis on speed these days, many horses simply are not bred to run over a mile.
Horses with stout pedigrees are identified by a system called Dosage, which attaches a numerical grade to each horse's lineage. The lower the number the better with horses that have a Dosage over 4.00 given a low probability of thriving at the Derby distance.
The Dosage system is controversial but the general principle is not: Horses born form parents who were able to run at longer distances are more likely to do so themselves than offspring produced by a stallion and mare that enjoyed success at shorter distances.
