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October 2004
You're about to match cash to conviction and risk some dead presidents on the impending NFL season and you're wondering, "What one factor will determine whether I win or lose?"
Good question.
Some bettors, often called technical handicappers, rely on trends. They look to the past to see how a team has fared against an opponent in previous years, how significant - or not - the home field has proven in the rivalry. They examine how a team responds to a double-digit defeat, how it plays after it routs an opponent, what type of effort is exerted against a non-divisional foe the week prior meeting a divisional rival.
These types of handicappers analyze each team's record on grass and on artificial turf. They calculate how each team performs in the four basic wagering categories, home favorite, home underdog, away favorite and away underdog.
For technical handicappers, trends and statistics are everything. If the trends hold, they win. If they don't, they lose.
The non-technical or intuitive handicapper is interested in numbers too but for him, the only number that really counts is the pointspread. For intuitive handicappers, the pointspread is all consuming. For these natural handicappers, numbers either "feel" right or they don't. For an intuitive handicapper, the key factor is whether the number feels to big or too small. Most of the time, the number feels just right - let's face it, these oddsmakers are good - but at least a few times each week, the player finds a number that he thinks is too small, so he lays it, or too large, so he takes it.
Which method is better? Do you trust the numbers (trends) or your gut?
Given that if you flipped a coin you should pick 50% winners or 10 out of 20 games, then either method, if employed properly, should be able to nudge you one more pointspread victory, or 11 out of 20, for 55% and a slight edge over the vigorish.
So why do so many more people lose than win?
The reason is that 55%, 60% or even 65% winners do not guarantee success.
The one factor that, more than any other, will determine whether you win or lose is not how well you handicap but how well you bet. Professional players know that it's the great bettors, not the great handicappers who drive Mercedes.
Managing you money, getting value, pressing good luck, and avoiding the temptation to "get out" are the real factors that separate the winners from the losers.
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