When the Boston Red Sox rebounded from an 0-3 deficit to beat the New York Yankees in the best-of-seven American League Championship Series in October, technical handicappers were stunned. Never, in the history of Major League Baseball post-season play, had a team so much as forced a seventh game, let alone won it.
Technical handicappers who earn their living (if they earn one at all) by relying on historical data and statistical trends were fleeced and flummoxed. When New York went ahead in games, 3-0, these statistical servants continued to bet on the Yankees, doubling their wagers with each ensuing game, confidant that history would reward their resolve and that the Bronx Bombers eventually would win another game.
While no sport matches baseball in terms of overall numerical data, football is the real provenance of technical handicappers. Tune in to any of the myriad of Friday night or Saturday morning TV tout shows and you'll learn that the justification for many of the selections is some statistical trend.
For example, you're apt to be told that "the prior year's straight up loser in the Army-Navy game is 14-8 against the spread the following year." So that would argue for a wager in the Midshipmen when they face the Cadets in Philadelphia, Dec. 4.
Or you might learn that "Michigan State is just 3-11 against the spread in its final road game of the year." The Spartans conclude their season with a visit to Hawaii, Dec. 4.
Virginia Tech at Miami is another game on the early December docket that offers serious consideration for the technical handicapper. After all, since 1995, the Gobblers are a superb 7-2 against the spread and the Hurricanes. Also, since 1983, the Hokies are 14-7 versus the number in their last road game of the year. On the other hand, Miami is 8-4 against the spread in its last dozen home finales, making the play less certain than it initially appeared.
Another trend that undoubtedly will draw the attention of technical handicappers is that USC has covered five straight games versus its cross-town rival, UCLA. The Los Angeles teams face off Dec. 4, this year.
December (as well as early January) also is the month for college football bowl games. For what it's worth - you'll have to be the judge of that - here are pointspread records for the each team's past five bowl game appearances, as well as some recent trends:
| Team |
ATS |
The Spread Skinny |
| Air Force |
3-2 |
Falcons were favored once; didn't cover |
| Akron |
0-0 |
No Division IA bowls in the school's history |
| Arizona |
2-3 |
Wildcats 2-0 as an underdog; 0-3 as a favorite |
| Arizona St. |
2-3 |
Sun Devils 2-1 as a dog; 0-2 as a favorite |
| Army |
4-0 |
Cadets last bowl in 1996; all wins as a dog |
| Arkansas |
3-2 |
Razorbacks are 2-0 as a dog of +5 1/2 or more |
| Alabama |
2-3 |
Crimson Tide is 0-1 in the role of an underdog |
| Auburn |
3-2 |
Both pointspread losses came in the Peach Bowl |
| Ball St. |
1-1 |
Falcons were twice a dog in the Las Vegas Bowl |
| Baylor |
3-2 |
Bears made their last bowl appearance in 1994 |
| Boise St. |
3-1 |
Broncos are 3-0 in the Humanitarian Bowl |
| Boston College |
4-1 |
Eagles are undefeated in bowls this century |
| Bowling Green |
0-1 |
Falcons failed to cover in '03 Motor City Bowl |
| BYU |
2-3 |
Cougars are 1-3 as a bowl game underdog |
| California |
3-2 |
Bears are 1-0 and "over" under Coach Tedford |
| Central Michigan |
0-2 |
Chippewas lost both games as an underdog |
| Cincinnati |
1-3 |
Bearcats are 0-1 as a bowl game underdog |
| Clemson |
2-3 |
Tigers are 1-2 as a bowl game underdog |
| Colorado |
3-2 |
Buffaloes are 0-1 as a bowl game underdog |
| Colorado St. |
2-3 |
Rams are 2-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Duke |
0-2 |
Blue Devils: five bowls in the last 50 years |
| East Carolina |
2-3 |
Pirates are 0-2 as a bowl game favorite |
| Eastern Michigan |
0-0 |
Eagles beat San Jose State in '87 Cal Bowl |
| Florida |
1-4 |
The Gators are 0-3 as a bowl game underdog |
| Florida St. |
2-3 |
Bobby Bowden's team is 0-2 in the Orange Bowl |
| Fresno St. |
3-2 |
The Bulldogs are 3-0 as a dog; 0-2 as chalk |
| Georgia |
4-1 |
Only loss came when Ga. Tech wasn't last game |
| Georgia Tech |
2-3 |
The Ramblin' Wreck is 1-2 as a bowl favorite |
| Hawaii |
2-3 |
The Warriors are 1-3 in bowls on the Islands |
| Houston |
2-3 |
The Cougars are 0-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Idaho |
1-0 |
Won as 17-point dog in '98 Humanitarian Bowl |
| Illinois |
3-2 |
The Illini are 1-0 as a bowl game favorite |
| Indiana |
4-1 |
The Hoosiers' last bowl appearance in 1993 |
| Iowa |
3-2 |
The Hawkeyes are 2-1 as a bowl game underdog |
| Iowa St. |
2-3 |
The Cyclone is 0-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Kansas |
2-2 |
The Jayhawks are 2-0 as a dog of +5 or less |
| Kansas St. |
1-4 |
The 'Cats are 0-4 as favorite of -3 1/2 or more |
| Kentucky |
3-2 |
Wildcats are 3-1 as a bowl game underdog |
| Kent St. |
0-0 |
Flashes lost to Tampa in '72 Tangerine Bowl |
| Louisiana (Laf.) |
0-0 |
Cajuns were last seen in the 1970 Rice Bowl |
| Louisiana Tech |
1-1 |
Just two bowl appearances in last 25 years |
| Louisville |
1-4 |
The Cardinals are 0-3 as a bowl game underdog |
| LSU |
4-1 |
The Tigers are 2-0 as a bowl game favorite |
| Marshall |
5-0 |
Congratulations! Thundering Herd only 5-0 team |
| Maryland |
3-2 |
The Terrapins are 3-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Memphis |
1-0 |
The Tigers beat North Texas as favorite in '03 |
| Miami |
4-1 |
'Canes are 3-1 as a favorite; 1-0 as a bowl dog |
| Miami (Ohio) |
1-0 |
Covered (-14) vs. Louisville in '03 GMAC Bowl |
| Michigan |
2-3 |
Wolverines are 0-2 as a bowl dog of +3 or more |
| Michigan St. |
2-3 |
The Spartans are 0-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Minnesota |
1-4 |
Golden Gophers are 0-3 as a bowl game favorite |
| Mississippi |
4-1 |
The Rebels are 3-0 as a bowl game underdog |
| Mississippi St. |
2-3 |
The Bulldogs have won their last two as a dog |
| Missouri |
1-4 |
All five lines were between 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 |
| Navy |
3-2 |
The Midshipmen are 2-0 as a bowl game favorite |
| Nebraska |
3-2 |
The Cornhuskers are 3-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Nevada |
0-2 |
Three straight Las Vegas Bowls in the '90s |
| New Mexico |
1-2 |
Lobos lost at the Las Vegas Bowl in '02 and '03 |
| New Mexico St. |
0-0 |
2-0-1 SU in three Sun Bowl appearances, 1935-60 |
| Northern Illinois |
0-0 |
Team beat Fullerton (NL) in '83 California Bowl |
| North Carolina |
4-0 |
All Tar Heels wins came as a bowl game favorite |
| No. Carolina St. |
3-2 |
The Wolfpack is 2-0 as a bowl game favorite |
| North Texas |
1-2 |
Three straight as underdog in New Orleans Bowl |
| Northwestern |
1-3 |
Wildcats are 1-3 as a bowl game underdog |
| Notre Dame |
1-4 |
Irish have not covered since '95 Orange Bowl |
| Ohio |
0-0 |
Lost to Richmond (NL) in '68 Tangerine Bowl |
| Ohio St. |
2-3 |
The Buckeyes are 0-2 as a bowl game favorite |
| Oklahoma |
2-3 |
The Sooners are 1-0 as a bowl game underdog |
| Oklahoma St. |
2-3 |
Last five Cowboys' bowl games have gone "over" |
| Oregon |
4-1 |
Ducks are 4-0 as a favorite; 0-1 as an underdog |
| Oregon State |
2-2 |
Beavers are 2-1 as a favorite of -3 1/2 or less |
| Penn St. |
3-2 |
The Nittany Lions are 2-1 as a bowl favorite |
| Pittsburgh |
2-3 |
The Panthers are 0-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Purdue |
2-3 |
The Boilermakers are 0-2 as a bowl favorite |
| Rice |
0-0 |
The Owls' last bowl appearance was in 1961 (NL) |
| Rutgers |
0-1 |
Knights lost the 1978 Garden State Bowl to ASU |
| San Diego St. |
1-1 |
Aztecs won as a bowl game dog, lost as favorite |
| San Jose St. |
1-0 |
The Spartans covered in 1990 Cal Raisin Bowl |
| SMU |
2-2 |
Mustangs' last bowl appearance was back in 1984 |
| South Carolina |
3-2 |
Gamecocks boast back to back covers under Holtz |
| Southern Miss. |
2-2 |
Golden Eagles 1-0-1 as a favorite of +7 or more |
| Stanford |
3-2 |
The Cardinals is 2-0 as a bowl game underdog |
| Syracuse |
2-3 |
The Orangemen are 1-0 as a bowl game favorite |
| TCU |
3-2 |
The Horned Frogs are 0-1 as bowl game favorites |
| Temple |
1-0 |
The Owls beat Cal in 1979 Garden State Bowl |
| Tennessee |
1-4 |
The Vols have consecutive losses in Peach Bowl |
| Texas |
1-4 |
Longhorns were favored in last five bowl games |
| Texas A&M |
3-2 |
The Aggies are 2-1 as a bowl game underdog |
| Texas Tech |
2-3 |
Red Raiders were favored in last five bowls |
| Toledo |
2-1 |
1-0 as favorite; 0-1 as dog; 1-0 at pick 'em |
| Tulane |
2-3 |
Green Wave is 1-0 as a bowl game favorite |
| Tulsa |
2-1 |
Hurricanes have been dogs in all three games |
| UCLA |
2-3 |
The Bruins are 1-3 as bowl game favorites |
| UNLV |
2-0 |
Both Rebel wins as favorite in Las Vegas Bowl |
| USC |
3-2 |
Trojans were favored in their last five bowls |
| Utah |
3-2 |
The Utes are 3-1 as a bowl game favorite |
| Utah St. |
0-1 |
The Aggies lost as dog in '97 Humanitarian Bowl |
| UTEP |
0-2 |
Miners failed as both favorite and underdog |
| Vanderbilt |
0-1 |
Commodores' last bowl appearance was in 1982 |
| Virginia |
2-3 |
Back to back covers in Continental Tire Bowl |
| Virginia Tech |
1-4 |
Three of four outright losses as the favorite |
| Wake Forest |
3-1 |
Demon Deacons are 3-1 as a bowl game underdog |
| Washington |
3-2 |
Huskies are 2-0 as a double-digit bowl underdog |
| Washington St. |
3-2 |
The Cougars are 2-0 as a bowl game underdog |
| West Virginia |
2-3 |
The Mountaineers are 0-1 as a bowl favorite |
| Western Michigan |
0-0 |
Broncos lost to Fresno State in '88 Raisin Bowl |
| Wisconsin |
2-3 |
The Badgers are 0-2 as a bowl game favorite |
| Wyoming |
2-3 |
The Cowboys last bowl appearance was in 1993 |
