It's all over but the shouting... and the betting.
Now that's it's almost certain that the Democrats will nominate John Kerry as their candidate to be President of the United States, the wagering of whether the Massachusetts Senator or the current occupant of the White House, George W. Bush, will win in November, can begin.
The Greek Sportsbook opened the election with Bush listed as a -145 favorite (bet $145 to win $100) with Kerry quoted as the +125 underdog (bet $100 to win $125).
Interestingly, although it's a US election, there is no wagering on the race anywhere in the United States, which is a bit odd, given that the practice of establishing odds and betting on presidential elections was born in America more than a half-century ago. It was in 1948 when Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder, noting that a recent study showed that women did not trust men with mustaches, boldly predicted that underdog incumbent Harry Truman would defeat the hirsute Thomas Dewey. Or so the story goes.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board does not permit wagering on events that are decided by a vote, such as the Oscar, or Emmy Award presentations. Happily,
The Greek Sportsbook does not operate under that restriction.
Irrespective of the Gaming Control Board's intransigence - or the trepidation of American books to press the matter - wagering, estimated at "several million" by one source, is just a phone call or keyboard push away.
So how to handicap the race?
Start with the concept that, because of the Electoral College, the race really is composed of 51 individual races in the 50 states and District of Columbia. Indeed, Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 by more than a half-million votes but lost the election because Bush had the advantage in the Electoral College, 271-267.
Because of reapportionment, the 30 states Bush won in 2000 now are worth 278 votes; the 20 states and District of Columbia that Gore won are worth 260.
So, Bush need only defend the states he won in 2000 to earn re-election. On the other hand, Kerry needs to hold the Gore states and pick off one or two Bush states to unseat the President.
In fact, many of the states aren't even in play. Bush can count on 22 states, most of those in the Great Plains, the southwest and the south. Those 22 states represent 190 Electoral votes, just 80 short of the 270 needed to win re-election.
Kerry's base of 11 states and the District of Columbia in New England, the upper Atlantic Coast and California account for 168 Electoral votes, leaving him 102 votes short of the prize.
There are 17 states that are up for grabs.
Among the biggest targets for each camp are Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Bush won Florida by 527 votes last time as the candidacy of consumer advocate Ralph Nader drew 97,488 votes, probably two-thirds of which would have gone to Gore. Nader is back for another try but his impact - if he gets on the ballot - is expected to be minimal. Kerry might try to help his odds of winning Florida by naming either of the state's senators, Bob Graham or Bill Nelson, as his vice presidential running mate.
Pennsylvania narrowly went to the Democrats in 2000 but the culturally divisive issue of gay marriage could help Republicans, especially in more conservative western Pennsylvania.
No Republican ever has won the White House without Ohio, which Bush won by less than 4 percent in 2000. But the Buckeye State has lost 250,000 jobs and Democrats think they have a real shot there. The addition to the Democratic ticket of Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, a favorite of labor, could help Kerry win Ohio, not to mention Missouri and West Virginia, another state that has lost manufacturing jobs.
Other states in the mix include New Mexico, which Bush lost by just 266 votes in 2000, Iowa, where Bush collected 48.22 percent of the vote to 48.54 percent for Gore, and New Hampshire, which Bush won by about 7,000 votes.
