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March 2003
If you were nuts in January, crazy in February and plan on being insane in April, then understanding the intricacies of March Madness may be as simple as merely going a few days without your Prozac. The rest of us probably need a little more guidance.
In November, TheGreek Sportsbook dissected the factors-home court, morale, revenge, the impact of freshmen - that have the greatest effect on the oddsmaking, handicapping, betting and bookmaking processes of regular season college basketball. This month, as promised, we return to the hardcourt to reveal the five additional factors that oddsmakers must consider before issuing lines for the NCAA Basketball Tournament:
Neutral Sites: Since all tournament games are played in settings that are theoretically neutral, astute bettors usually look for teams that have proven they can win on the road. For the most part, you'll find those teams in conferences that have as much depth as flash. Typically, that includes the ACC, Big East, Big-10, Pac-10 and SEC. But you have to do your homework. Sometimes a conference such as the MAC can produce gritty, battle-tested squads that can take their act on the road, too.
The Odd Couples: The NCAA Tournament often produces matchups that offer the price maker and bettor little or no historical perspective. It's not easy determining what the correct line should be for Duke versus Winthrop, Kansas against Holy Cross, Maryland versus Siena, Cincinnati against Boston University, Oregon versus Montana, Oklahoma against Illinois-Chicago, Alabama versus Florida Atlantic or Pittsburgh against Central Connecticut State, all matchups from last year.
For the record, Duke was made a 34-point favorite over Winthrop and covered, 84-37. Kansas was -29 but only won by 11. Maryland, a 26-point favorite, won by just 15 against Siena. Cincinnati, -24, got the job done against BU, 90-52, but Oregon, -20, just missed a cover versus Montana, 81-62. Alabama, -17, let down favorite backers when the Crimson Tide beat Florida Atlantic by just eight points. Pittsburgh, a 16-point favorite, barely covered against Central Connecticut State, 71-54.
Every post-season there are several teams that have not been on the board all year that qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Cagey bettors will try to determine the overall strength of each team's individual conference. They'll also look to see how these non-board teams have done in their efforts against regular spread teams. There's usually a game or two that offers a clue as to how these lesser-known and lesser talented outfits are apt to perform against upper echelon teams.
The marriage of unfamiliar teams with unsophisticated bettors can produce some unintended consequences. One fellow, who knew as much about basketball as Texas Tech Coach Bob Knight knows about treating his players with a quiet kindness, wanted to bet Stanford in the 1999 Tournament. Instead, he wound up placing a wager on Samford. Turned out it didn't matter since neither one covered the spread in their openers.
And there was the weekend bettor who pestered a wiseguy for a tip. "UConn," the exasperated sharp finally whispered to the square. The unsophisticated bettor looked in vain for "Yukon," a school, he insisted, was located in "Alaska or northern Canada."
Style: Although a difference of style-a run and gun, fast-paced, full court game versus a deliberate half course offense, for instance - is a consideration during the regular season, because of the gap in talent, the differences can be even more pronounced during the tournament. UNC-Wilmington was able to dictate an up-tempo game when, as an 11-point underdog, it upset USC, 93-89, in the opening round last year. But the Seahawks ran into the tough defense of Indiana in the second round and scored 26 points less in a 76-67 loss to the Hoosiers. In setting lines and moving spreads, bookmakers always are thinking about which team will win the battle of styles.
Get the Point (Guard): Because pressure is so much a part of the NCAA Tournament, it's difficult to win without an experienced point guard. Turnovers will kill the best of teams so canny bettors rarely risk large amounts on a team that doesn't have a cool customer directing the attack. Experience at the point is a facto considered by oddsmakers and bookmakers, too.
Time: Often overlooked is the time-crunch associated with the opening week of NCAA Tournament games. After the pairings are announced Sunday, oddsmakers have only about three hours to post accurate prices on the games. It has to be a difficult assignment to dispense 32 spreads and 32 totals in 180 minutes. Maybe that's why many players believe the best time to bet the games is when the lines are first posted.
After all, gamblers never have been reticent about making oddsmakers pay for their haste.
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